Alabama is nearing the end of its peak severe weather season, and while it may have seemed to be on the quiet side, that’s not the case by the numbers.
Alabama has had 43 confirmed tornadoes in 2016, which is “definitely above average” so far, according to Kevin Laws, the science and operations officer at the National Weather Service office in Birmingham.
February has been by far the busiest month with 21 tornadoes. Next was March with 13 and April with nine.
Those storms have been blamed for five injuries, but no deaths.
And most of the tornadoes that touched down were on the weaker side: 19 were rated EF-0, and 18 were EF-1s. There have been, however, six EF-2 tornadoes so far this year.
Why was the late winter/early spring so busy? It’s just the way the weather pattern played out, according to Laws.
“There’s not really anything to speak of as far as putting a finger on it,” he said recently. “Nothing I can really pinpoint, nothing unusual.
“You’ll get into a favorable pattern, then you’ll get into an unfavorable one like what happened after the first week of April,” he said. “Not only did we not have tornadoes for a lot of April, we didn’t really have a lot of severe weather for April. It’s more of a pattern we’re seeing than something odd globally.”
Tornadoes are also plentiful nationwide, thanks in part to recent rounds of severe weather and tornadoes in the Plains.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has a preliminary count of 418 tornadoes nationwide as of May 16.
That’s using two different sets of numbers: The SPC has determined “actual” numbers for the months of January (18) and February (102). The numbers for March, April and so far in May are still preliminary and could drop some as the SPC verifies reports.
Through April, according to the SPC, there is a preliminary count of 333 tornadoes. The three-year average using the same timeframe, from January through April, is 209.
More storms are expected this week to the west but widespread severe weather is not likely for Alabama as June draws closer, although there could be a few severe storms over the next few days.
Alabama’s tornado numbers typically decrease once summer begins, especially in June and July, according to weather service data.
While there have been 234 tornadoes on record in May from 1950-2015. That number drops to 68 for June, 70 for July and 67 for August.
That’s due in part to Alabama’s typical summertime weather pattern, in which the air tends to stagnate to a certain extent.
Anyone who has spent even a day in Alabama in the dead of summertime knows how rare and welcome a fresh breeze can be.
“Instability numbers are off the charts in the summer, obviously. It’s blazing hot at the surface and cooler aloft,” Laws said. “Instability is never a problem; we just don’t have any wind.
“Summer thunderstorms never move anywhere, they just sit in one place because there’s no wind,” he added. “They never move; they never go anywhere. It takes wind, wind shear. You’ve got to have wind shear to get something organized and in the summer you just don’t have that around here.”
The exception would be if a tropical system were to come calling. Hurricane season begins June 1.
“But hopefully we won’t have that,” Laws said. “Don’t need that problem. But outside of that, a lot of the summer and early fall tornadoes just come from tropical activity for the most part. There’s an exception every once in a while but it’s exceedingly rare. Especially as you get into July and August. For a storm system i’d have to be something very, very unique.”
By Leigh Morgan
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on May 18, 2016 at 6:29 AM, updated May 18, 2016 at 10:23 AM
